SMM September 26:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,998/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it dipped to a low of $1,997.5/mt, then rebounded and fluctuated upward after hitting the bottom, climbing to a high of $2,018/mt before closing at $2,009/mt, up 0.32%, marking a four-day winning streak.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened at 17,100 yuan/mt, initially fluctuating downward to a low of 17,075 yuan/mt. With bulls increasing positions, SHFE lead rebounded and rose to touch a high of 17,130 yuan/mt, finally closing at 17,125 yuan/mt, up 0.09%.
As the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday approach, downstream enterprises continue stockpiling lead ingots, with market activity remaining moderate. Meanwhile, some lead smelters in northern regions are gradually resuming production after maintenance, leading to a relative increase in market supply WoW. However, production resumptions at lead smelters in Anhui, the largest secondary lead production area, are slower than expected, resulting in lingering regional supply tightness. Some downstream enterprises have shifted to sourcing materials from nearby warehouses, causing a further decline in social inventory of lead ingots to a four-month low. Next week, as primary lead and secondary lead enterprises gradually resume production and a small amount of imported crude lead is expected to arrive at ports, supply is anticipated to continue recovering. Meanwhile, most downstream enterprises have completed pre-holiday stockpiling, retaining only just-in-time procurement going forward. The decline in lead ingot inventory may slow down, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.
